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Let’s call it out like it is: AI is here to replace white-collar workers.
Microsoft just announced autonomous agents, Anthropic’s Claude launched Computer Use, and countless startups are racing to develop AI assistants that can take on entire jobs (remember Devin, the “first AI software engineer”?.
While AI isn’t on par with humans yet, I find myself asking the question: what if they succeed?
It’s obvious how sufficiently capable AI could lead to unprecedented income concentration and labor market disruption. It would cause mass unemployment. Universal Basic Income (UBI) would be the only way to redistribute some of that wealth but governments would probably be slow to act.
The weird thing, though, is that while there is a world where AI automation outpaces the number of new jobs created, that day hasn’t arrived yet. Global productivity this year is actually DOWN and employment is UP (see graph).
There is another world where AI might solve a problem overlooked by some: aging populations and birth rate decline.
I lay out the arguments here in more detai: https://jurgengravestein.substack.com/p/the-economics-of-ai
submitted by /u/jurgo123
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